[tin Summit] Global tinplate total production capacity and demand Challenge and Development of tinplate in the Field of Packaging

On October 29th, 2020, held by SMM and under the name of Thousand Island Group, the 10th Tin Industry chain Trading Summit was held in Poly DoubleTree by Hilton Agra, Shanwei, Guangdong Province. This meeting received the attention and support of industry chain colleagues, institutions, government and other people from all walks of life, and about 200 guests participated in the meeting. At the meeting, Li Jiang, deputy general manager of Fujian Uni-President tinplate Co., Ltd., gave a speech on the challenges of tinplate in the field of packaging and the characteristics, uses and prospects of the key technology of hot-dip tinning.

General situation of Global tinplate Market-- Total production capacity and Total output

Due to the instability of global politics and economy in the past five years, the fluctuation of supply and demand is more obvious. The average operating rate is about 70% and the output is about 18 million tons. The change of total production capacity is mainly in Asia, especially in China, such as capacity loss, environmental protection, high pressure and so on. Similarly, the change in total demand is mainly in China, affected by environmental protection, new technologies, substitutes, consumption upgrading, the transformation from traditional to personalized consumption, as well as downstream changes in production capacity and inventory reduction. The change in total demand for tinplate shows a slow decline.

According to the statistics of various overseas channels, the demand is about 12.65 million tons (due to the difficulty of statistics in countries such as the Middle East and Africa), and the total global (overseas) demand for tin (chromium) is estimated to be about 14.2 million tons. All the above overseas demand statistics, excluding domestic demand of about 3.77 million tons. On the domestic side, according to domestic statistics from various channels, the demand of domestic users is about 3.77 million tons. The main domestic demand cities are concentrated in the coastal areas to facilitate logistics and transportation.

The top competitors are concentrated in Europe and Japan, and have advantages in terms of supply stability, quality, service, cost and so on. There is a strong demand for social stability in the main export markets of Chinese enterprises, such as Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, where there is no full-process steel mills. In addition, the main customers are Chinese enterprises. Domestic enterprises have great advantages in products, services and culture.

Tinplate import and export volume from 2008 to 2019

Domestic production capacity has far exceeded the growth of demand. After 2015, with the concentrated production of Nippon Steel, Shougang and Shagang in WISCO, the domestic tinplate market has entered a period of white-hot competition.

Comparison of domestic supply and demand of tinplate in China: ten thousand tons

Prospects and characteristics of global tinplate consumption

The main users of tinplate products: food, beverage packaging and other consumption characteristics are close to fast-moving consumer goods, which are closely related to population and economic factors. The first type of market: Europe and the United States high-end market, a large number of stable demand, positioning high-end. The second category of market: Asia, South America and other countries in the high-end market, the use of materials for mature primary material (SR material) to coated iron range.

The global tinplate production capacity is about 25 million tons and the surface consumption is about 18 million tons. There is an imbalance between supply and demand in all major regions of the world, which is dependent on international trade.

Demand and characteristics of tinplate terminal products in China

The overall domestic demand for tinplate is about 3.8 million tons. In recent years, it has been constantly affected by "aluminum, glass, plastic" and other related substitutes, and the overall domestic demand growth of tinplate is very limited.

Beverage market (high-end): the demand of domestic tinplate beverage cans has encountered the ceiling in the past 16 years, and there is no new big brand beverage cans after Red Bull and six walnuts, so the market demand for beverage cans has shown a negative growth trend since 2017.

Food market (high-end): there is an overall growth trend (especially milk powder cans). Due to the limitations of domestic eating habits, the overall capacity of the food market is small, and the incremental part is still unable to support the balance of production and marketing of tinplate.

Spray cans and electronic products (medium and high-end): with the development of the automotive industry, the demand of the domestic spray can industry has increased to a certain extent. However, the trend of low-end use of iron has led to increased competition in the industry, and the price of tinplate for spray cans has fallen instead of rising.

Chemical industry and miscellaneous cans (middle and low end): there has been a certain increase, but with the control of domestic real estate and the development of infrastructure industry, the growth rate has slowed down.

Challenges of tinplate in the field of packaging (domestic market analysis-domestic market demand)

Due to the epidemic, especially the uncontrollable outbreak and spread of the overseas epidemic, China's canned exports are expected to increase by 3-5% in 2020 compared with the same period last year, especially the large demand for small cans, and the consumption of tinplate is also increased accordingly.

China's export unit of canned food products from January to July 2018-2020: ton

Trend chart of consumer demand for beverage cans (tinplate packaging) in this year's epidemic (unit: 100 million)

Domestic market analysis-demand of key industries for domestic sales

Industry demand was low from January to June in 2020, but the domestic epidemic situation continued to improve after July. With the stimulation of flood control, disaster relief and favorable policies in the Yangtze River and other river basins, and considering the factors of preparing goods in advance for the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market needs to improve at the end of July.

Beverage: the demand for iron cans in the beverage industry has fallen by 16% in 2019, and some small and medium-sized brands have fallen by more than 30%. In 2020, a large number of finished product stocks in the beverage industry affected by the epidemic have not been digested, and it is generally expected to be digested until July. We expect demand to fall by about 20 per cent to about 640000 tonnes.

Food: due to the soaring price of pork in the food can industry, the cost of canned meat has soared, and some manufacturers have lost their production power due to the rapid rise in costs. Affected by the epidemic, domestic production is generally suspended for 1-2 months, and there is still negative growth from January to April, but the foreign epidemic has accelerated canned exports since the outbreak in March, showing a positive growth by the end of May, and industry demand is expected to grow by 3-5% to about 690000 tons in 2020.

Spray cans: the spray can industry is generally shut down for about one and a half months due to the epidemic, and some factories return to work earlier because they can produce disinfection equipment. After multi-party understanding, the follow-up order of the spray can industry in 2020 is still Wengding, and the overall demand is basically maintained at about 250000 tons, which is expected to decline by 4%. But more than 80% of them are low-and middle-end demand.

Influence of epidemic situation on tinplate export market

Influence of epidemic situation on tinplate export market

Domestic and foreign market analysis-product development trend, substitutes (aluminum) such as Baosteel production and marketing

The conversion of steel to aluminum has become a global trend.

Relevant conclusions

Overcapacity: the state of "supply exceeds demand" in the domestic market, it is difficult to change fundamentally in a short period of time, and the industry operating rate basically maintains a low level of 55% and 60%.

Difficulties have increased: international trade protectionism is on the rise, the United States has introduced 232 and 301 trade protection measures one after another, and Europe has also launched investigations on temporary protection measures; the international trade environment has further deteriorated. Export growth has eased and export difficulties have increased, and domestic tinplate suppliers have turned to the domestic market, so competition in the domestic market has further intensified.

Industry losses: whether it is the first echelon of joint venture factory tinplate suppliers in China (such as China Rida, Pacific, Unification, etc.), or the third echelon of private enterprise tinplate suppliers (such as Koma, Jintai, etc.) have failed to achieve profits or small profits, the whole industry has been in the quagmire of small profits and "losses" since 2015.

Estimation of average annual tin consumption of tinplate in China

Development and change of tinplate industry in the future

New National Standard of tinplate under Food Safety Environment

[food safety has become the focus of global public health, while the safety of food contact materials is closely related to food safety], [GB/T 2520 / 2017 "cold-rolled electroplated tinplate and steel strip" national standard seminar was held in Zhangzhou on April 12, 2018), [the new tinplate national standard will be implemented on June 1, 2018]

Tinplate is usually electroplated tinplate, or cold-rolled electroplated tin sheet.

New Group Standards in tinplate Industry

(1) China Iron and Steel Association, Standardization Technical Organization-National Steel Standardization Technical Committee approved and approved the project in May this year-tinplate packaging-electroplated tinplate and steel strip industry groups for food and beverage contact officially launched the formulation of new standards;

(2) highlight the food contact requirements, the scope of application is suggested to include iron for dry food cans, such as biscuits, tea cans and other uses;

(3) Standard nature-recommendation, standard category-product, completion life-2021;

(4) the competent department-China Iron and Steel Association, Standardization Technical Organization-National Steel Standardization Technical Committee;

(5) Direction:

Make a standard and use tinplate for food to distinguish it from other uses to ensure food safety.

(6) Standard: it is based on GB/T2520-2017.

The original board of (a) clearly uses three kinds of MR/L/D.

The content of heavy metals in (b) tin plating layer should be specified.

Food safety migration indicators are included. Linked to food safety standards.

Development trend of tinplate processing and packaging

1. Food safety and the new national standard will promote the development of high-quality products in China's metal packaging industry and food industry, further reduce and replace and eliminate inferior products, and enhance the survival and development space of authentic and high-quality products.

2. Global trend-plastic ban

1) EU plastic ban

2) Europe produces about 25.8 million tons of plastic waste every year, of which less than 30 per cent is collected or recycled. The impact of plastic waste on our ecological environment, especially disposable items (such as bags, straws, coffee cups, beverage bottles and most food packaging) is gradually increasing.

3) in May 2018, the European Commission proposed the most stringent plastic restriction order in history for the first time.

4) under the proposal, the 10 most common disposable plastic products on European beaches will be banned in 2021, and EU countries are obliged to recycle 90 per cent of plastic bottles by 2025. In October of the same year, the proposal was endorsed by member States by an overwhelming vote of 571 to 35.

5) the period of plastic ban and plastic restriction in China has been clearly defined.

6) China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecological Environment announced the opinions on further strengthening the Control of plastic pollution on January 19, 2019. By the end of 2020, China will take the lead in banning or restricting the production, sale and use of some plastic products in some areas and fields; by the end of 2022, the consumption of disposable plastic products will be significantly reduced and alternative products will be promoted. We expect that in the near future, most plastic-packaged drinks will prefer tinplate packaging!

3. Pay attention to, participate in, cooperate with, excavate consumption upgrading, and make an excellent choice of environmental protection, green and low-carbon packaging materials.

Summary:

1. The global market demand for tinplate is about 14.2 million tons (all of the above overseas demand), excluding domestic demand of about 3.77 million tons, if you add in the total domestic demand of about 18 million tons.

2. The annual demand for tinplate in the domestic market is about 3.77 million tons. Tin is used for each ton of tinplate about 3.57kg, and the annual tin consumption of domestic tinplate is about 13500 tons.

3. Tinplate overcapacity, low industry concentration, increased substitutes, high environmental protection, high costs, industry losses, capacity removal (survival of the fittest) challenges are the only way for the development of the industry.

4. This year, due to the causes of the epidemic, especially the uncontrollable outbreak and spread of the overseas epidemic, China's canned exports are expected to increase by 3-5% in 2020 compared with the same period last year, especially the large demand for small cans exports, and the consumption of tinplate has also increased accordingly. However, the domestic beverage can iron has a great impact, and its sales are blocked, which will be greatly reduced compared with the same period last year.

5. Tinplate will change in the direction of developing green packaging, protecting the environment and recycling resources in the future.